Thoughts on economics and liberty

Only John Ioannidis, Sunetra Gupta and Mikko Paunio have commented on the TRUE magnitude of covid

Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) or Infection Mortality Rate (IMR)

[Download this brochure for a big picture analysis]


“The infection fatality rate of seasonal flu strains, which kill tens of thousands of Americans each year, is about 0.1 percent” (New York Times, 17 April 2021)

“Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has said that the mortality rate for seasonal flu is 0.1 percent.” (Washington Post, 10 March 2020)

“Experts say that the virus may be five to ten times as lethal as seasonal flu, with a fatality rate of 0.1% kills 60,000 Americans in a bad year.” (Economist, 27 February 2020)

“the seasonal flu has a death rate of approximately 0.1%” (Wall St. Journal, 10 March 2020)

“The much ‘milder’ flu viruses, by contrast, kill fewer than 0.1 percent of people they infect, on average, but are responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths every year”. (The Atlantic, 25 February 2020)

“the mortality rate of current seasonal flu is less than 0.1 percent” (Scientific American, 14 February 2012)

“Ordinary influenza viruses kill about 0.1 percent of those infected”. (NYMAG, 26 February 2020)


As per UK government (August 2021): 0.096 per cent.

As per Mikko Paunio

“According to my calculations, the IFR is 0.13%, making the virus approximately as dangerous as seasonal flu” (source)

Explaining the larger death toll of covid

Btw, the flu generally impacts around 25% of the global population each year (2 billion cases per year: also see this). Covid is far more transmissible than the seasonal flu, so its total death impact is around 2-3 times that of the flu: in India around 90% have had it, which is quite astonishing. So with the same IFR we’d expect a larger death toll for covid, bringing it to the category of the Hong Kong or Asian flu (consistent with my ongoing analysis).

As per the Henderson’s index case analysis, any lockdowns and border closures would not be justified for covid even if it was far less transmissible, but with its higher transmissibility the idea of border closures and lockdowns is beyond ludicrous.




Ioannidis’s 23 December  2021 paper:

IFR is the same as flu or less for under 60s (and even for older people without underlying health issues the IFR is not catastrophic.) For children and young people it’s statistically almost irrelevant.  [A discussion here]






Infection fatality rate of COVID-19 inferred from seroprevalence data – John P A Ioannidis

Across 51 locations, the median COVID-19 infection fatality rate was 0.27% (corrected 0.23%)


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Sanjeev Sabhlok

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One thought on “Only John Ioannidis, Sunetra Gupta and Mikko Paunio have commented on the TRUE magnitude of covid
  1. Roslyn Ross

    The Jabs cause more cases and more deaths than we would have had without any vax programme.
    The results of this study taken together demonstrate a product that directly causes more COVID-19 associated cases and deaths than otherwise would have existed with zero vaccines.…/CausalAnalysisReport…
    Consequently, these experimental gene therapy injections known as COVID-19 vaccines cannot be mandated by any public policy that intends to continue following the regulations of the Nuremberg Code (Code 1998Code, Nuremberg. 1998.

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