Thoughts on economics and liberty

Category: Science

Don’t expect Jodie McVernon to reply – she knows she is doing the wrong thing

An important and detailed letter by Emma McArthur to Jodie McVernon: PDF.

 

For the attention of:

Professor Jodie McVernon

Doherty Institute and Murdoch Children’s Research Institute

 

Dear Professor McVernon

In a press conference on 3 August 2021, you said you would like everyone ‘immunised tomorrow’ for Covid-19.

Professor McVernon, please explain how people can be ‘immunised’ with a ‘leaky vaccine’ that apparently neither prevents infection nor transmission? This flaw in the ‘vaccine solution’ to Covid-19 was recently acknowledged by Professor Andrew Pollard in the United Kingdom, who stated that reaching the herd immunity threshold with vaccination was ‘mythical’ because the vaccines are not stopping transmission of SARS-CoV-2.[1] Professor Pollard is the Chief Investigator on the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine trials, and Chair of the UK Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation.

Professor McVernon, is it ethical to use your position to promote this mass-vaccination campaign when you know the rights of the Australian people are being crushed to achieve it? A damaging vaccination apartheid is underway in our nation, polarising the ‘vaccinated’ and the ‘unvaccinated.’

Is it ethical to force these experimental products on the entire Australian population, possibly setting them up for repeated Covid-19 vaccinations for life, when it has been known since early 2020 that Covid-19 is not a serious risk to most people?[2,3]

As Elizabeth Hart questioned in her rapid response in the British Medical Journal in March 2020, is it ethical to deny people not at risk from Covid-19 the opportunity to develop natural immunity to SARS-CoV-2? Is it right to make people dependent on what is now looking like inferior vaccine-induced immunity and, by default, dependent on the vaccine industry?[4]

According to correspondence from Minister for Health and Aged Care, Greg Hunt, ‘the primary objective of vaccinating Australians is to reduce the risk of developing serious disease if a person is infected, rather than reducing transmission of the virus.’[5] If this is the Morrison Government’s stated objective, why did they pay the Doherty Institute to produce a model that incorporated a strategy to purportedly reduce transmission across the population, with vaccination targets of 70-80%? Why didn’t the Government concentrate on those who may be vulnerable to serious disease instead?[6]

The Morrison Government has stated that it does not know how long immunity from these vaccines will last.[7] Israel, one of the most vaccinated countries in the world, has now declared that a third ‘booster’ shot is needed.[8] People are no longer considered ‘immune’ after two injections. Anybody can see where this is heading – the question is, who is benefitting from this strategy Professor McVernon?

Why are governments pushing to vaccinate entire populations when evidence suggest natural immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is robust, durable and likely superior to the immune response from vaccination?[9-12]

Why is evidence that many people have pre-existing cross-immunity, from exposure to other coronaviruses, being ignored?[13] Your modelling argues for interference with the natural immune response of most of the population – could you be setting in place the conditions for a catastrophe, by destroying natural immunity to SARS-CoV-2 with this unprecedented mass-vaccination rollout?

Why are strategies for supporting a healthy immune system and the role of vitamin D being disregarded? Why isn’t early treatment being offered to protect those at risk, while allowing the young and healthy – who are not at risk of serious illness and death – to acquire natural immunity?[14]

Were any of these factors considered in your modelling Professor McVernon?

Data from around the world now shows that these products are ineffective at preventing infection and transmission, and that vaccinated individuals may carry viral loads equivalent to unvaccinated people.[15,16] Therefore, the question must be asked as to whether this mass-vaccination campaign with these ‘leaky vaccines’ will cause more harm than good?

In her recent email to you, Elizabeth Hart pointed out the role of the Doherty Institute in the response to Covid-19, stating ‘modelling out of the Doherty Institute in 2020 and now in 2021 is responsible for keeping Australians’ free movement and association suppressed via lockdowns and restrictions, until a ‘vaccine solution’ is implemented in response to Covid-19.’[17]

Why are the Australian people being coerced – with the aid of the Doherty Institute modelling – into submitting to what was described by Greg Hunt as the world’s ‘largest clinical trial’? Is anyone giving valid informed consent to participate in this global experiment?

Why have people across the world been held to ransom, and their fundamental rights destroyed, by works of scientific fiction – beginning with the infamous ‘Report 9’ from Professor Neil Ferguson et al at Imperial College, London, in March 2020?[18] Professor Ferguson’s reputation for wildly overstating risk pre-dates Covid-19;[19] yet his work continues to influence the Doherty Institute modelling that is guiding the Australian response to Covid-19, including the Morrison Government’s National Plan to transition Australia’s National Covid-19 Response.

Why are governments continuing to follow these models in the face of evidence that clearly demonstrates why we should not use guesswork as the main driver for public health policy?[20] As you said yourself in your press conference, these models contain ‘thought experiments’, they are ‘scenarios not predictions’ and ‘deliberately quite artificial’.

Professor McVernon, modelling, such as your work with the Doherty Institute, has been used around the world to promote damaging suppression strategies with a ‘vaccine solution’ as the only way out. This was done without addressing the obvious catastrophic harm these policies would cause, as admitted by Ferguson’s team at Imperial College, who stated:

‘We do not consider the ethical or economic implications of either strategy here [mitigation or suppression], except to note that there is no easy policy decision to be made. Suppression, while successful to date in China and South Korea, carries with it enormous social and economic costs which may themselves have significant impact on health and well-being in the short and longer-term.’(Emphasis added)

They conclude with the following:

‘However, we emphasise that is [sic] not at all certain that suppression will succeed long term; no public health intervention with such disruptive effects on society has been previously attempted for such a long duration of time. How populations and societies will respond remains unclear.’ (Emphasis added)[18]

Professor McVernon, after 18 months, the damage being caused by these suppression policies is clear.[21]

This might be a ‘thought experiment’ to you, but to millions of Australians – and citizens around the world – fiction has become fact. These ‘simulations’ are a harsh reality that have resulted in the widespread suspension of civil and political rights and enabled the biggest power shift, in the relationship between government and citizens, in living memory. These policies are destroying the lives and livelihoods of everyday people – with those already experiencing socioeconomic hardship suffering the most of all.[22] This is a disgrace.

In my recent letter to the South Australian Commissioner for Children and Young People, I highlight the most egregious aspect of the response to Covid-19 – the collateral damage being caused to the lives and futures of our children and young people. As a former social worker and trauma counsellor, and as a mother, I am disgusted by the blatant disregard for our children’s wellbeing inherent in Covid-19 policies.[23]

Professor McVernon, in your press conference you point out that you are also a parent, and a former paediatrician. You suggest it is important to ‘immunise’ children ‘to maintain their education.’ Are we now living in a society where a child’s right to education is dependent on their participation in medical experimentation? Why are schools closed when evidence from overseas shows there is no need to close them to protect those who are at risk?[24-27] Is it right to support this abuse of children’s rights as recognised under the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child?

Is it ethical to allow the children of Australia to be turned into human guinea pigs and injected with these experimental medical products, when they are at little risk from Covid-19? Studies from around the world have shown that a child’s risk of death from Covid-19 is miniscule, including a study from England showing that 25 children died with Covid-19 between March 2020 and February 2021. This was in a population of over 12 million children, with millions of cases of Covid-19. Most of these children also had underlying health issues.[28-30]

In the face of this data, how can it be justifiable to vaccinate Australian children and young people for Covid-19?

Is it ethical to deny children and young people a robust and durable natural immunity to SARS-CoV-2? Is it ethical to subject them to the unknown risks of novel vaccine technology and potentially a lifetime of Covid injections? Have you modelled how many children may be harmed or die because of this mass-vaccination strategy Professor McVernon? What number of injuries and deaths in children is the Morrison Government willing to accept to achieve its goal of vaccinating the whole country?

I am astounded that any mother would knowingly subject children to these risks. Why would a mother persist with such a narrative when there is insufficient evidence to show that these products are safe, and there are unanswered questions about the unusually high number of adverse events and deaths after Covid-19 vaccination?[31-33]

Professor McVernon, in your press conference you stated that the Doherty modelling team has been ‘working with the Australian Government on pandemic preparedness and response for 15 years.’ In that case, you must know that Australia has a pandemic plan called the Australian Health Management Plan for Pandemic Influenza (AHMPPI)? You must also know that Australia, along with most other countries, discarded years of pandemic planning when faced with SARS-CoV-2 in 2020.[22]

I recently asked Mr Morrison why he abandoned the AHMPPI to pursue this authoritarian suppression strategy with a ‘vaccine solution’ as the only way out – see attached letter. Doherty modelling has driven this strategy from the outset. Mr Morrison has yet to answer this question.

Professor McVernon, do you know why many recommendations in the AHMPPI were discarded and replaced with lockdowns, border closures, forced PCR testing, digital surveillance, mandatory quarantine and coercive mass-vaccination?

Why were long-standing principles of public health and fundamental human rights thrown out in the response to Covid-19?

Professor McVernon, do you know who exactly is benefitting from this vaccine solution because it seems clear that it is not the Australian people?

I request your response to the matters raised in this email.

Yours sincerely

Emma McArthur

References

  1. Herd immunity a ‘mythical’ goal that will never be reached, says Oxford vaccine head, The Telegraph, 10 August 2021
  2. Press conference Professor Brendan Murphy, Chief Medical Officer, and the Minister for Health, the Hon. Greg Hunt [Transcript], Australian Government Department of Health, 26 February 2020
  3. Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) v 4.7, CDNA National Guidelines for Public Health Units, Australian Government Department of Health, 24 June 2021
  4. Hart E, Rapid Response: Is it ethical to impede access to natural immunity? The case of SARS-CoV2, British Medical Journal, 2020, 368:m1089, 17 March 2020
  5. Letter from Greg Hunt, Australian Department of Health, 28 July 2021
  6. Statement on the Doherty Institute modelling, The Doherty Institute, 23 August 2021
  7. How long will the COVID-19 vaccine last once I have had 2 doses?, Australian Government Department of Health, 25 August 2021
  8. In Israel, Being Fully Vaccinated Now Means Three Shots, Wall Street Journal, 31 August 2021
  9. Lasting immunity found after recovery from COVID-19, NIH Research Matters, 26 January 2021
  10. Sekine T at al., Robust T cell immunity in convalescent individuals with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19, Cell, 1 October 2020 Oct 1,183(1):158-168.e14, doi: 10.1016/j.cell.2020.08.017
  11. Natural immunity vs Covid-19 vaccine-induced immunity – Marc Girardot of PANDA, BizNews, 29 June 2021
  12. Gazit S et al., Comparing SARS-CoV-2 natural immunity to vaccine-induced immunity: reinfections versus breakthrough infections, medRxiv 2021.08.24.21262415, doi: 10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415
  13. Pre-existing immunity to Covid-19 – Marc Girardot of PANDA unpacks its evolution, BizNews, 16 August 2021
  14. https://aapsonline.org/CovidPatientTreatmentGuide.pdf, The Association of American Physicians and Surgeons online, 28 August 2021
  15. Dyer O, Covid-19: Delta infections threaten herd immunity vaccine strategy, British Medical Journal, 2021, 374:n1933
  16. Riemersma KK, Shedding of Infectious SARS-CoV-2 Despite Vaccination, medRxiv, 2021.07.31.21261387
  17. Why are people not at risk of covid-19 being pressed to have covid-19injections? A question relevant to the Doherty modelling influencing Australia’s covid-19 response, Vaccination is Political (website), 20 August 2021
  18. Ferguson et al., Report 9 – Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand, Imperial College, 16 March 2020:p3, doi:10.25561/77482
  19. Is the chilling truth that the decision to impose lockdown was based on crude mathematical guesswork?, Matt Ridley Online, 10 May 2020
  20. Ioannidis et al., Forecasting for COVID-19 has failed, Int J Forecast, 2020,10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.08.004, doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.08.004
  21. https://collateralglobal.org
  22. Responding to COVID-19: Public health or public harm?, PANDA, June 2021
  23. Urgent investigation into the impact of the Marshall Government Covid-19 polices on the rights of South Australian children, Humanity at the Precipice (website), 6 August 2021
  24. Ludvigsson JF et al., Open Schools, Covid-19, and Child and Teacher Morbidity in Sweden, N Engl J Med, 2021, 384(7):669-671, doi:10.1056/NEJMc2026670
  25. Lewis S et al., Closing schools is not evidence based and harms children, British Medical Journal, 2021, 372:n521
  26. Covid-19 in schoolchildren – A comparison between Finland and Sweden, Swedish Public Health Agency, 7 July 2020
  27. Brandal LT et al., Minimal transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from paediatric COVID-19 cases in primary schools, Norway, August to November 2020, Euro Surveill, 2021, 26(1):pii=2002011
  28. Boast A et al., An evidence summary of Paediatric COVID-19 literature, Don’t Forget the Bubbles, 2020
  29. Global Covid-19 Case Fatality Rates, Centre for Evidence Based Medicine, 7 October 2020
  30. Deaths in Children and Young People in England following SARS-CoV-2 infection during the first pandemic year, medRxiv 2021.07.07.21259779, doi.org/10.1101/2021.07.07.21259779
  31. Lawrie T, Urgent Preliminary Report of Yellow Card Data, Evidence-based Medicine Consultancy Ltd and EbMC Squared CiC, 9 June 2021
  32. Covid’s warped vaccines, The Spectator, 19 June 2021
  33. McCullough PA, Pathophysiologic Basis and Clinical Rationale for Early Ambulatory Treatment for COVID-19 and Update on Vaccine Safety , IHU Méditerranée-Infection, 5 July 2020

 

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A prototype web app by Jason Gavrilis that includes vaccines, covid AND the Stringency Index

ADDENDUM

You can now select between Time Series and Scatterplot. The scatterplot allows visualising relationships between variables. For example, new deaths vs. people vaccinated or stringency_index.

ORIGINAL POST

Jason Gavrilis has taken his previous work to the next level with an app that adds the stringency index (a kind of a proxy for lockdowns).

https://jazon-data.shinyapps.io/CV19-Data-App/

p.s. It takes a few seconds to load when you first open it.

The app allows the selection of a few variables including Country, Measure (e.g. deaths per million, cases per million, and positivity rate), and Colour (e.g. people fully vaccinated). The app is also dynamic. You can hover over data points to see the values. You can also zoom in and zoom out etc.

Note, it adds ‘Stringency Index’ as a Colour variable. The Stringency Index was developed by Our World in Data and is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). It is a kind of ‘lockdown’ index. If you select ‘Stringency Index’ as the Colour variable in the app, then the colour represents Stringency. That is, the darker the color green, the higher the stringency.

 

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Donald Henderson and the index case problem

I’ve commented on this issue elsewhere https://t.me/sanjeevsabhlok/1483 and https://t.me/sanjeevsabhlok/1977

But since 98% of the world’s epidemiologists don’t understand this, let me also note here.

David Henderson, Dean of the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, who helped eradicate small pox, was a staunch opponent of international border closures and quarantines. Australia’s public health “experts” are monumentally ignorant in comparison.

When even small pox could never be stopped, how can respiratory viruses be stopped at the border?

International border closures and quarantines were antiquated as a public health policy by the 1960s and were NEVER recommended since then. THEY HAVE BEEN RE-INVENTED BY THE CCP.

TRANSCRIPT

In the smallpox program there were the questions: What do we do about screening people?

And this was something we were really deeply concerned about with smallpox.

And so, we went into the records rather thoroughly since about 1945. And there are about just under 50 importations of smallpox that could be well-documented.

And the question is: How many might we have intercepted who might have had just fever or rash?

And the fact was none.

So, anything we were doing at a border crossing to try to interrupt smallpox coming across the border would have been quite futile.

I then had some discussions with our CDC colleagues and the quarantine group down there and thought about this. I thought, you know, as I said to them, CDC investigates a lot of different outbreaks, and many of these you can tell which are the first case [THE INDEX CASE], and so forth. It’d be interesting to see how many instances we could identify in which that first individual might have been intercepted coming into the country.

And I’m still waiting for one example so far.

I think the point is that this idea that in this day and age one is going to intercept people coming across the border and you’re going to stop the spread of the disease is a concept that was antiquated a very long time ago.

Also:

Lessons from the eradication of smallpox: an interview with D. A. Hendersonax

MY VIDEOS

In this video I explain the index case problem in English.

In this video I explain the index problem in Hindi.

 

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Having had covid reduces further hospitalisation risk 8 times compared with vaccines. BUT vaccines FURTHER enhance immunity of those previously infected.

This is a placeholder post – will add when time permits.

The title of the post reflects my current understanding of the facts. The main paper is still under peer-reviewed so some of it might change. I believe that the much feared ADE has NOT happened. Therefore there is an argument to be made that those who have been vaccinated and get a “breakthrough” reinfection, are likely to end up with even stronger immunity at the end of the process, if they survive.

PRE-PRINT: 24 August 2021

Comparing SARS-CoV-2 natural immunity to vaccine-induced immunity: reinfections versus breakthrough infections

The natural immune protection that develops after a SARS-CoV-2 infection offers considerably more of a shield against the Delta variant of the pandemic coronavirus than two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, according to a large Israeli study.

people who once had a SARS-CoV-2 infection were much less likely than never-infected, vaccinated people to get Delta, develop symptoms from it, or become hospitalized with serious COVID-19. The study demonstrates the power of the human immune system.

The study, conducted in one of the most highly COVID-19–vaccinated countries in the world, examined medical records of tens of thousands of Israelis, charting their infections, symptoms, and hospitalizations between 1 June and 14 August, when the Delta variant predominated in Israel. It’s the largest real-world observational study so far to compare natural and vaccine-induced immunity to SARS-CoV-2, according to its leaders.

It’s a textbook example of how natural immunity is really better than vaccination,” says Charlotte Thålin, a physician and immunology researcher at Danderyd Hospital and the Karolinska Institute who studies the immune responses to SARS-CoV-2. “To my knowledge, it’s the first time [this] has really been shown in the context of COVID-19.”

The new analysis relies on the database of Maccabi Healthcare Services, which enrolls about 2.5 million Israelis. The study, led by Tal Patalon and Sivan Gazit at KSM, the system’s research and innovation arm, found in two analyses that never-infected people who were vaccinated in January and February were, in June, July, and the first half of August, six to 13 times more likely to get infected than unvaccinated people who were previously infected with the coronavirus. In one analysis, comparing more than 32,000 people in the health system, the risk of developing symptomatic COVID-19 was 27 times higher among the vaccinated, and the risk of hospitalization eight times higher. [Source: Science.org]

FURTHER (AND THIS IS IMPORTANT)

people who had SARS-CoV-2 previously and received one dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine were more highly protected against reinfection than those who once had the virus and were still unvaccinated. [Source: Science.org]

In other words, taking a vaccine AFTER having first being infected further strengthens the immune response. The vaccine therefore seems to act as a booster for natural immunity.

 

PRE-PRINT: 6 August 2021

High genetic barrier to escape from human polyclonal SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies

the immune systems of people who develop natural immunity to SARS-CoV-2 and then get vaccinated produce exceptionally broad and potent antibodies against the coronavirus. The preprint, for example, reported that people who were previously infected and then vaccinated with an mRNA vaccine had antibodies in their blood that neutralized the infectivity of another virus, harmless to humans, that was engineered to express a version of the coronavirus spike protein that contains 20 concerning mutations. Sera from vaccinated and naturally infected people could not do so. [Source: Science.org]

 

PEER-REVIEWED: 14 June 2021

Naturally enhanced neutralizing breadth against SARS-CoV-2 one year after infection

people who recover from a SARS-CoV-2 infection continue to develop increasing numbers and types of coronavirus-targeting antibodies for up to 1 year. By contrast, he says, twice-vaccinated people stop seeing increases “in the potency or breadth of the overall memory antibody compartment” a few months after their second dose. For many infectious diseases, naturally acquired immunity is known to be more powerful than vaccine-induced immunity and it often lasts a lifetime. [Source: Science.org]

 

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