Thoughts on economics and liberty

Sorry, Alex Berenson is wrong again – for the third time

Someone shared this analysis by Alex Berenson:

People appear to die at rates 20 percent or more above normal for weeks after receiving their second Covid vaccine dose, according to data from a huge Swedish study.

The figures are buried in a preprint paper on vaccine effectiveness released last month. The headline finding of the paper was that protection against Covid, including severe cases, plunged after six months.

The researchers did not explicitly examine deaths from all causes – which have risen since the summer in many countries that have highly vaccinated populations.

But on page 32 of the 34-page report, a chart shows that 3,939 of 4.03 million Swedes who received the second dose died less than two weeks later.


Over a one-year period, that rate of death would translate into an annual mortality rate of about 2.5 percent a year – 1 person in 40 – almost three times the overall Swedish average. In a typical year, about 1 in 115 Swedes dies.

Of course, that huge gap does not account for an important confounding factor: younger people, who have a much lower risk of death, were less likely to be vaccinated.

But Sweden also provides detailed data on overall deaths nationally, making a crude baseline comparison possible.

That data shows that from an average of about 1,650 Swedes died every week between 2015 and 2019 between April 1 and early August, the period in which almost all of those 4 million Swedes in the study received their second dose. Death rates hardly varied over those years.


In other words, during the spring and summer, Sweden normally has about 3,300 deaths every two weeks – not just in the people who received vaccines, but in all 10.6 million of its people.

So let’s make an incredibly conservative assumption, one that strongly favors the vaccines. (The next couple paragraphs are a bit tricky, but I hope the payoff is worth taking the time to read and think through them.)

Assume that the group of people who received vaccines were so much older and unhealthier than those who didn’t that they would have accounted for every single death in Sweden whether or not they were vaccinated. In other words, assume that even if the vaccines did not exist, every person in Sweden who died would have been part of that group of 4.03 million people the researchers tracked – while not one other person would have died.

In that case, those 4.03 million people “should” have about 3,300 deaths every two weeks. They CANNOT HAVE MORE – because all of Sweden does not have more.

But the vaccines do exist. Those 4.03 million people received them. And in the two weeks after receiving the second vaccine dose, as a group, the researchers reported they had not about 3,300 deaths, but 3,939.

And 3,939 deaths is about 20 percent more deaths than “should” have occurred in those two post-vaccine weeks. Again, the 20 percent figure understates the real gap, because in the real world some deaths will occur in the 6.6 million unvaccinated people too, so the actual baseline number for the vaccinated group is not 3,300 deaths but somewhat lower.

Unfortunately, the researchers did not report any details on the deaths, so it is impossible to know if they are disproportionately cardiovascular. It is also impossible to know whether one particular vaccine was disproportionately linked to deaths. (Sweden used mostly the Pfizer mRNA vaccine, as well as some of AstraZeneca’s DNA/AAV vaccine, which is not available in the United States, and a small amount of Moderna’s mRNA vaccine.)

Of course, it is just possible the extra deaths are due to chance. Or that the handful of elderly Swedes who received vaccines in February and March accounted for a hugely disproportionate number of the post-vaccine deaths. (Because per-week Swedish death rates are higher in the winter, a large number of post-vaccine deaths in those months would somewhat reduce the strength of the signal, though it would still exist.)

But the caveats aside, the Swedish figures offer a very large real-world dataset apparently showing a notable increase in all-cause mortality directly following Covid vaccination.

They are yet another piece of evidence in an increasingly worrying picture – alongside case and anecdotal reports, a known link to heart inflammation in young men, the updated Pfizer clinical trial data revealing a numerical imbalance in deaths in vaccinated people, and most importantly the general rise in all-cause mortality in many countries.

And all of these red flags come for vaccines that – if the Swedish data are correct – may actually raise the risk of Covid infection after about eight months.

Yes, RAISE. See how that black line drops below the zero level on the top chart? That represents negative effectiveness, which is another way to say people who are vaccinated are MORE likely to be infected than those who aren’t.

And, as the second chart shows, effectiveness against severe Covid infection is also spiraling towards zero.

Yet the Biden Administration and governments across Europe continue to try to force more people to take these vaccines.


WELL HE’S WRONG AGAIN – for the THIRD  time (for the previous two times, see this).

Alex starts off on right track here for a change – but then as usual he has missed out key issues.

Only the elderly were given vaccines in the initial stages, and their death rates are astronomically higher than that of the average population. Many of them die regardless of the vaccine. That’s what these deaths are all about.

See the age distribution of the double dose in Sweden:

In fact the signal of 20% “higher” deaths for a sample that is highly skewed towards the elderly is very low – it should have been much higher. It is low because around 3-4k of the elderly who were vulnerable have passed away due to covid – there aren’t that many left to die this year.

Overall we see from the stats that Sweden is having a HUGELY low year of deaths despite the covid pandemic spilling over into 2021. (

Let’s just say that Alex won’t be getting a job even as a junior data analyst in any analytical organisation.

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Sanjeev Sabhlok

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4 thoughts on “Sorry, Alex Berenson is wrong again – for the third time
  1. Thomas Siler

    Alex seems right to me and I don’t understand your answer to him
    In the 2 weeks after the vaccine 3939 people died with 4 million vaccinated(40%
    of population)
    In the past, 2 weeks in the summer would have had 3300 people dying in all of Sweden(10 million)
    Therefore in a usual summer the 6 million unvaccinated at that time would have
    .6 times 3300 deaths in the two weeks=1980.
    Deaths in 4 million vaccinated for the two weeks=3939 plus deaths in the unvaccinated 6 million=1980 would be 5919 deaths in two weeks.
    Even if all the elderly people were shifted into the vaccinated group, it seems it would still be way too many deaths for the two weeks due then to vaccine
    What am I missing? Tom Siler M.D.

  2. Sean

    Mr. Sabhlok!
    Since you are publishing a blog for public viewing, it would be helpful if you at least provided an explanation of you response to Dr. Siler’s reply. I am trying to follow and learn, but I need the explanation as to why ‘excess deaths’ is the critical statistic.
    Thank you,

  3. Sanjeev Sabhlok

    Thanks, time constraints. See my many ICC complaint, article in The Australian, the work of Michael Levitt, and my many other posts on this being the ONLY credible piece of information in the midst of lies and chaos.

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