1st June 2011
[This post has since been updated with new set of slides. See: Can India catch up? Can Australia (or the West, more broadly) do better?]
Based on a talk I gave on 2 March 2011 (see detailed notes here) I'm currently working on a broader, better researched talk. I'm sharing the draft slides with you to seek feedback.
I welcome feedback and comments, In particular, please let me know about any issue you'd like to see covered or any shortcomings you find in the arguments.
Offer to talk in Melbourne
I've offered (on Linkedin) to speak on this topic to any group of interested listeners in Melbourne. If you are interested, please write to me. Happy to tailor the talk to suit your needs.
For inclusion in the slides:
In relation to immigration into Australia, the issue is not the sheer 'raw' population size of Australia, but the QUALITY of the people who live here.
People like Bernard Salt are wrong in MANY ways. The issue for Australia is not to bring in millions of poor quality migrants, but to ensure that the highest quality of talent is attracted to Australia. That, as I've shown, is NOT going to happen given that India and China will become attractive enough to their best talent, and will also take away the best talent from the West.
Australia has ALWAYS received (on average) second tier talent from places like India. It is now getting close to third tier. This means that the emphasis should not be on sheer numbers but on the quality of people.
Second, the infrastructure bottlenecks (due to excessive migration, despite very limited investment in infrastructure) are severe enough to reduce the quality of life in many cities. Given opportunities, the better people will be the first to leave.