Thoughts on economics and liberty

Rebuilding the detailed sequence of events of January – March 2020

This is a placeholder post. Will keep adding as I come across, along with soures.


In late February, the LSHTM started to model a range of measures to control the pandemic. On 10 March the team went on to consider the impact of a lockdown, at the time thought an unrealistic and draconian option.

Periodic lockdowns of a few weeks at a time could keep the pandemic at bay, so that the NHS could cope.

Their work was confirmed by Mark Woolhouse and colleagues at the University of Edinburgh, then by the Imperial team, which looked at the efficacy of various measures across Europe and found lockdown is by far the most efficient.

By 11 March, the day that Italy ordered a lockdown, these UK epidemiologists were agreed that a lockdown was the only option to ensure the NHS could cope.  Lockdown allows hospitals time to manage their critical care capacity.

Spain ordered a lockdown on 14 March,  France on 17 March, Belgium on the 18 March, Greece on the 23 March, along with the Netherlands, and the UK locked down on the 24 March.

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Sanjeev Sabhlok

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