Thoughts on economics and liberty

Why almost all excess deaths are from lockdowns

Sent this msg a moment ago to a person who’s persuaded that vaccines have caused a vast number of deaths:


I’m fully aware of the statistics you’ve shared (these are standard reports on excess deaths from across the world).
There are many conflating factors here, that need to be segregated.
1. Sweden is the only control we have for lockdown deaths (i.e. all its excess deaths – if any – are actual covid deaths: no – or very few – lockdown deaths). There are no excess deaths there, so we can say conclusively that vaccines did not cause any noticeable excess deaths.
2. In all other countries, lockdowns caused a severe increase in non-covid deaths. Moreover, lockdowns caused an increase in covid deaths – so there is a double whammy in such countries. My CBA for Australia with Gigi Foster shows nearly 8000 lockdown deaths in Australia till December 2021. And the paper with Jason shows causality for excess covid deaths. The causes of lockdown deaths are extremely well documented. Any analysis of vaccine deaths must first factor the lockdown deaths and make sure it is not counting lockdown deaths – which will continue for many years, since late detection of cancers and heart disease can kill immediately in some cases, and in 2-3 years in others. Increased obesity/increase in diabetes could also have such impacts.
3. The data re: Australia has to be read very carefully – that’s why the analysis made in the CBA is important. ABS has had a significant period of misreporting of deaths (they have detailed footnotes on their website) but they have not corrected for this misreporting in their annual deaths data or charts.
4. I’ve gone through the cause of deaths data in Australia for 2021 and 2022 – among the excess deaths: all these are related to lockdowns; no indication of any excess deaths from vaccines; confirming the findings from Sweden.
5. Since vaccines definitely saved a few people from dying, and  killed a few, the net effect on deaths is close to zero. Of course, those saved were old and those who died probably younger, which greatly skews the net harm if we were to undertake a CBA. But identifying the precise number of vaccine deaths is extremely hard, given that vaccines have, on the whole, saved 


vaccine deaths, lockdown deaths, excess deaths

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Sanjeev Sabhlok

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