15th June 2022
Lockdowns increase even COVID deaths – a draft paper
A couple of weeks ago I started working on a paper with Jason Gavrilis.
My data analysis skills are now very rusty – I’ve not done regressions on large datasets for over 23 years since my doctoral dissertation. In WorkCover I did SAS programming for a year (I was hired for various things, including my ability to do SAS progamming) but programming skills and UNIX skills have a very short half life. Use them or lose them is the rule.
Plus I simply don’t know how to merge different datasets (eg. life expectancy, vaccine status, covid deaths) – never did such things before. Jason, on the other hand, is a whiz with data and with programming (he is using R). Let me therefore note that without Jason this paper would not exist, and I would have not been able to confirm my suspicions that lockdowns increase COVID deaths.
We’ve been fortunate that Martin Lally who’s done two papers that use the Stringency Index, has provided detailed comments on the test regressions that have run by Jason (for Europe). This means Jason is very confident now of the results we are getting.
I’m trying to complete a full draft very soon, and would welcome feedback on the draft:
I think the structure is now emerging – this will likely be a working paper, not sent to a peer-reviewed journal. But it has all the information to conclusively prove that:
- Lockdowns DO NOT SAVE EVEN COVID deaths (very strong conclusion)
- Lockdowns INCREASE COVID deaths (a weak but very powerful conclusion).