26th December 2021
No, this 2006 paper doesn’t advocate lockdowns
Someone claimed that this 2006 paper recommended lockdowns: https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/publications/publishing.nsf/Content/mathematical-models/$FILE/pandemic-modelling.pdf
I had a 5 minute look – a few snippets attached.
My findings on the above paper:
1. There is no mention of lockdowns or cordon sanitaire.
2. The results are absolutely standard and consistent with all pre-2020 papers (see snippets ). NONE of the measures discussed stop the spread even modestly. Tens of such studies (much better: fully peer reviewed, not government reports) were reviewed by the WHO in its October 2019 and strict guidance issued against quarantines, border closures, and – of course – lockdowns. ALL of that information flowed into Australia’s (and global) standard pandemic plans.
3. The academics involved do not display the least understanding of virology and do not cite Donald Henderson’s index case problem (the word “index case” is cited once but not the IMPOSSIBILITY of controlling most respiratory viruses, even small pox). I REJECT OUTRIGHT any paper that uses mathematical models to consider pandemics and only care for papers based on a genuine understanding of virology.
It is like economics: any idiot can make a mathematical model, it takes a genius like Kautilya, Adam Smith, Bastiat or F.A. Hayek (these people did not use one word of mathematics) to understand actual economics. MATHEMATICS IS ONLY SUITABLE FOR A VERY FEW DISCIPLINES.
USING MATHEMATICAL MODELS TO ASSESS RESPONSES TO AN
OUTBREAK OF AN EMERGED VIRAL RESPIRATORY DISEASE
Final report to the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing by
Niels G. Becker, Kathryn Glass, Belinda Barnes, Peter Caley, David Philp
National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health,
Australian National University
James McCaw, Jodie McVernon
School of Population Health,
University of Melbourne
National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance,
University of Sydney
National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health