Except for Sweden, total mortality data CAN’T be used to estimate the magnitude of the pandemic

ADDENDUM:

Estimating the true magnitude of the pandemic and lockdown deaths – Part 1

Estimating the true magnitude of the pandemic and lockdown deaths – Part 2

==original post ==

Someone asked me to do a similar analysis to my Sweden analysis, for the UK.

It is crucial to recognise that we can’t do similar analysis for ANY other country. Any such analysis will be far more complicated.

The following extract from my email response to this person outlines the reasons why we can’t simply extrapolate total mortality data for other countries.

==EXTRACT==

One can do similar analysis for other nations like the UK but that will require more sophistication than simply projecting the data.

That’s because the data of these other countries is contaminated by additional deaths caused by lockdowns (that are crimes against humanity in my dictionary). These are not just additional heart attacks and the range of other deaths I’ve alluded in my ICC complaint. Instead, there is a high likelihood that lockdowns also increase covid deaths because resources are misallocated (this has happened in Victoria in Australia where resources were not allocated to aged care centres – and so, around 800 elderly died unnecessarily from or with covid). So we’ll need a customised analysis for each nation based on what exactly the government of that nation did.

Sweden is a superb control for analytical purposes – and we should stick to it – since it did not have coercive lockdowns. In summary, it will take advanced analytical skills to comment on non-Swedish total mortality data: any quick analysis will likely be misleading.

BBC has done one such early report: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54976362. it estimates that the UK has had 70k additional deaths in 2020 over a normal year, to date. But here’s the problem. I’m quite certain that most (at least more than 70%) of these additional 70k UK deaths are due to lockdowns and ill-targeted policies- not from covid.

The UK deaths data are available at: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales and time permitting I’ll have a look – but it will need a serious research project to disentangle various causes (including the crimes committed by governments). This needs to be a major multi-national project with the best expertise the world has on statistical and policy analysis.

ADDENDUM

https://web.archive.org/web/20201126163323/https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19

COVID DEATHS IN THE UK

COVID-19 deaths by age and deaths from COVID-19 only

COVID DEATHS IN THE USA