26th November 2020
Except for Sweden, total mortality data CAN’T be used to estimate the magnitude of the pandemic
==original post ==
Someone asked me to do a similar analysis to my Sweden analysis, for the UK.
It is crucial to recognise that we can’t do similar analysis for ANY other country. Any such analysis will be far more complicated.
The following extract from my email response to this person outlines the reasons why we can’t simply extrapolate total mortality data for other countries.
One can do similar analysis for other nations like the UK but that will require more sophistication than simply projecting the data.
That’s because the data of these other countries is contaminated by additional deaths caused by lockdowns (that are crimes against humanity in my dictionary). These are not just additional heart attacks and the range of other deaths I’ve alluded in my ICC complaint. Instead, there is a high likelihood that lockdowns also increase covid deaths because resources are misallocated (this has happened in Victoria in Australia where resources were not allocated to aged care centres – and so, around 800 elderly died unnecessarily from or with covid). So we’ll need a customised analysis for each nation based on what exactly the government of that nation did.
Sweden is a superb control for analytical purposes – and we should stick to it – since it did not have coercive lockdowns. In summary, it will take advanced analytical skills to comment on non-Swedish total mortality data: any quick analysis will likely be misleading.
BBC has done one such early report: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54976362. it estimates that the UK has had 70k additional deaths in 2020 over a normal year, to date. But here’s the problem. I’m quite certain that most (at least more than 70%) of these additional 70k UK deaths are due to lockdowns and ill-targeted policies- not from covid.
The UK deaths data are available at: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales and time permitting I’ll have a look – but it will need a serious research project to disentangle various causes (including the crimes committed by governments). This needs to be a major multi-national project with the best expertise the world has on statistical and policy analysis.
COVID DEATHS IN THE UK
1. Sreenshot from https://t.co/K7L1gHX8cz showing plots of #Covid19UK deaths. First is deaths within 28 days of pos test; 2nd is ONS data (covid listed as one of causes on death cert). In the ONS data, weekly deaths are now less than half they were in spring peak, but ….. pic.twitter.com/EDPhRRMHux
— Prof Norman Fenton (@profnfenton) January 17, 2021
COVID DEATHS IN THE USA
— Cameron Murray (@DrCameronMurray) January 20, 2021