Thoughts on economics and liberty

Notes on the Miami-Dade serological study – IFR upto 0.31%

“Taking the fatality number for 21 days after the median testing date, the IFR is 0.17% to 0.31%. This is likely an overestimation as most people use a 14 day delay.” [Source]


Miami-Dade has tens of thousands of missed coronavirus infections, UM survey finds

The study, spurred by Miami-Dade County officials, will be an ongoing weekly survey based on antibody testing — randomly selecting county residents to volunteer pinpricks of their blood to be screened for signs of a past COVID-19 infection, whether they had tested positive for the virus in the past or not. The goal is to measure the extent of infection in the community.

Beaumont Health launches nation’s largest serological testing study for COVID-19 antibodies

Miami-Dade researchers partnered with Florida Power & Light to randomly generate phone numbers and invite people to come to 10 drive-thru testing locations. Preliminary results released on April 24, based on two weeks of testing and about 1,400 participants, estimated that about 6% of the Miami-Dade population had antibodies. [Source]


In a survey conducted in Miami, random digit dialing was used to recruit a representative sample of participants. Participants then agreed to visit a drive-thru testing site. Bias can still occur if people do not consent or do not have a car, but it’s a creative approach. [Source]

In Miami, 750 new participants are recruited each week (repeated cross-sectional studies). Longitudinal studies, where the same people are sampled every 3-plus weeks, are especially valuable, allowing us to examine antibody dynamics over time to look for waning.

Sanjeev Sabhlok

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