17th May 2020
Notes on the LA County serological study – IFR <0.2%
This study, published on 21 April, has a very low IFR. But also very low proportion infected overall – therefore sampling issues remain. I might ignore this study after further examination.
Bhattacharya and Bendavid have also collaborated with Neeraj Sood, a health policy expert at the University of Southern California, to do a similar study in Los Angeles county. They used the same antibody test on 846 people selected by a marketing firm to represent the county’s demographics. In a press release issued this week, they estimated that roughly 4% of the county’s adult population has antibodies to the virus—as many as 300,000 people. (Sood told Science that 35 subjects tested positive.) [Source] – This suggests many of the deficiencies of the Santa Clara study might have flowed into this study as well]