22nd May 2020
If Sunetra Gupta is right, then Sweden, UK and Spain are close to herd immunity
Sunetra Gupta of Oxford emphases the issue of significant innate immunity and immunity from common cold. Since Unherd has issued a copyright strike against SBP’s youtube channel I’m not sharing on Youtube (as I’d normally do), but have shared the relevant extract on social media.
Sunetra Gupta also thinks that the final IFR is going to be around 0.05%, which is very close to common flu (0.04%). Her view is the in many countries in Europe herd immunity has been fully achieved already. https://www.youtube.
I’m increasingly convinced that many parts of Sweden – and possibly UK and a few other nations like Italy and Spain – have already achieved herd immunity, which should allow opening up their economies fully. The absence of a second wave in these nations will confirm that herd immunity has been achieved – serological tests can’t prove that.