Thoughts on economics and liberty

This German study is a game changer – just 0.37% death rate + massive immunity already

“Now, after searching blood from 500 residents for antibodies to the virus, scientists at a nearby university say they have determined that one in seven have been infected and are therefore “immune.” Some of those people would have had no symptoms at all.” [Source]

This is about a town in Germany – 15% herd immunity.

As expected, there is proof of at least temporary immunity. And in Italy, I was reading that nearly 20% are now immune, therefore Sweden’s estimates of 5-10% (more in Stockholm) are likely to be correct.

This means the true incidence of infection has been grossly underestimated. This means mortality rates have been grossly overestimated. “The findings suggest the mortality rate for the virus in Germany is just 0.37 per cent — five times lower than current estimates.” [source]

This proves thoroughly that the Swedish model is superior, since it is taking Sweden to the finishing tape much faster and with low overall costs (not just cost of life, social-cost-benefit wise).

If the German study is replicated elsewhere then this drama of lockdowns will die, since the death rate is just like that of a bad flu. Massive destruction caused by panicked “experts”.

ADDENDUM

Question on Twitter:

FURTHER

FURTHER

Objection received via email:

Gangelt is the town which was the epicenter of Germany’s first major CV-19 outbreak. As such, it is probable that the number of infected and recovered people there is higher than anywhere else in Germany, and much higher than the average infection rate in Germany.

It is also likely that some (perhaps most) of the early CV-19 deaths there were not recognized as having been caused by CV-19. The failure to correctly diagnose those deaths would result in an understatement of the fatality rate, and it would be consistent with an unusually high percentage of the population who had the disease undetected.

My response:

No data is perfect. Even the numerator is being heavily challenged across the world, with type 1 and type 2 errors in attributing the “cause of death”.

Thus, many people who would have otherwise died anyway are being classified as fatalities from covid-19, even as some others are being undercounted.

The errors probably cancel each other out to an extent. We have to make use of the best data we have. We don’t have the luxury of rejecting all information that comes to us on the basis of potential errors. We can use it, with a pinch of salt.

FURTHER NEWS REPORTS ON THE STUDY

Covid antibody test in German town shows 15 per cent infection rate – 10 April 2020

 

Sanjeev Sabhlok

View more posts from this author

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *