11th April 2020
List of scientists in favour of staggered/ managed herd immunity
Politicians are having a great time in popularity polls, as it appears that they are saving lives at very low cost to the economy.
But this is a delusion, a bubble, and will come back to haunt such politicians.
List of real scientists who recommend (explicitly or implicitly) managed herd immunity:
Yes. Since COVID-19 operates in a highly age specific manner, counter measures must also be age specific. If not, lives will be unnecessarily lost. https://t.co/M0FQOUZg80
— Martin Kulldorff (@MartinKulldorff) April 21, 2020
Patrick Vallance, the chief science adviser to the UK government, suggested that achieving herd immunity in the country was a viable way of dealing with this virus.
Sir Patrick Vallance, the govt chief scientific adviser, says the thinking behind current approach to #coronavirus is to try and "reduce the peak" and to build up a "degree of herd immunity so that more people are immune to the disease". #R4Today
— BBC Radio 4 Today (@BBCr4today) March 13, 2020
by the time 60% of the population is infected, how many will die? That will not be an acceptable proposition. Immediately, you will realise there is another solution and what is that? The interesting thing about this disease is that the virus acts as a mild disease for people in the younger age group and people above the age of 60 years, the mortality is high. If you look at the country’s population statistics, about 12.5% of the people are above 55 years of age.
It means roughly 87.5% are people whom I call as young people. So if you take care of the elderly and allow the transmission in younger population, but not too fast, just slow down a bit, it can work. Let it happen. Don’t do overcrowding; try to keep distance from each other. Work has to go on, industry has to be restarted, agricultural activities have to start and at the same time, young people will recover from the infection. When the immunity level is attained to the so-called protective level, or herd immunity, we can say that the epidemic has seized. But that doesn’t mean it won’t come back again. It may come back in another year or so but by then, we may have a vaccine.
Professor Graham Medley, the government’s chief pandemic modeller, said the only viable path through the health emergency would be to let people become infected so they are no longer vulnerable.
He warned the current restrictions would not steer the country out of the pandemic – only prevent a short-term spread – but would bring the economy to its knees.
Mounting unemployment, domestic violence and burgeoning mental health issues could be widespread if the normal functioning of society remains paralysed, Prof Medley forecast. [Source]
Professor Peter Collignon
Prof Collignon warned ‘we will continue to be at risk’ until the country gets broad immunity from either mass vaccination or a majority of Australians catch the illness. [Source]
I dont get this either. This virus is not going to go away anytime soon. If we get an effective vaccine it will be years before its rolled out effectively globally. https://t.co/rtNYzO9Di9
— Peter Collignon (@CollignonPeter) April 14, 2020
The Australian woman driving the global search for a COVID-19 vaccine has warned that there is no guarantee of success and the government must have a “plan B” to end the pandemic.
“But I do think it is important not to create unrealistic expectations. No one has ever successfully developed a coronavirus vaccine, and we still don’t have a vaccine against HIV. [Source]