6th April 2020
Further notes on CBA for pandemic options
Apart from the outline info I provided here, I’m going to make note of further thoughts here – this is a placeholder post.
If readers have any thoughts, please add.
OTHER POSTS ON WHICH I’M COMPILING RELATED INFORMATION:
Economic consequences of lockdowns – including their regressive impacts
I have tried to depict the difference between the Swedish and mass testing approaches. This diagram is obviously based on my "intuition" re: costs.
Btw, I've got extensive experience in CBAs and in most cases proponents miss out key costs while exaggerating benefits. pic.twitter.com/sgmKS8oo4V
— Sanjeev Sabhlok, Pope @Church of Reason & Liberty (@sabhlok) May 1, 2020
The cost of saving lives in this lockdown is too high – RUSSELL LYNCH Telegraph, 5 May 2020
[Some already mentioned, e.g. “being unemployed for months on end also has adverse social consequences: feelings of anxiety, inferiority and worthlessness, depression, suicidal thoughts, money worries that lead to marital conflict, breakups and violence.”- source]
Fewer resources for other emergency surgery (e.g. cancer) – leading to additional deaths
Reduced productivity from people working at home/ reduced agglomeration effects
Resources directed to otherwise unnecessary production (masks, sanitisers, gloves, ventilators)
Increased deaths from supply chain failures (this could take place at many levels, not just for essential things like drugs and PPE but things we don’t think of as essential but which can save lives).
Preprint paper states: since the full lockdown strategies are shown to have no impact on the epidemic’s slowdown, one should consider their potentially high inherent death toll as a net loss of human lives [Source]
Reduced deaths from reduced air pollution
Better gardens at homes since people now devote more time to these house tasks
The world went through a bigger pandemic in 1918 without killing all economic activity.
But by now communism/socialism/big state has become so established that a complete takeover by the state – and total destruction of the economy is not raising eyebrows.
— Sanjeev Sabhlok (@sabhlok) April 6, 2020
A COVID Cost-Benefit Analysis – Robert Verbruggen, 23 March 2020
Determining the optimal duration of the COVID-19 suppression policy: A cost-benefit analysis – Anna Scherbina 27 March 2020, AIE Working Paper
Covid-19: from model prediction to model predictive control – Ingmar Nopens, 27 March 2020
The Benefits and Costs of Using Social Distancing to Flatten the Curve for COVID-19 – Thunstrom et. al. 27 March 2020, SSRN
Cost-benefit analysis for the COVID lockdown – Junkscience
Can you put a price on COVID-19 options? Experts weigh lives versus economics – Warren Cornwall 31 March 2020
Reflections on the Economic Value of Life – Max Gulker, 25 April 2020
2 Lockdown Cost-Benefit Analyses – Robin Hanson, 27 April 2020