29th March 2020
What lies behind the pandemic models that are being used to inform policy?
I’m persuaded that the underlying modelling of pandemics is massively defective. A number of sensible options are not considered. I’ll comment more on that later. But for now, a few links to what these models actually do.
These are essentially S-I-R models, as explained below. This is a placeholder post.
There is no disease model I'm aware of that takes into account age-based risk management – that isolates only the elderly. All assume uniform distribution and deaths. That's why they recommend draconian lockdowns.
The "experts" are beyond ridiculous. They are dangerous.
— Sanjeev Sabhlok (@sabhlok) March 26, 2020
I’m conscious that lots of people would like to see and run the pandemic simulation code we are using to model control measures against COVID-19. To explain the background – I wrote the code (thousands of lines of undocumented C) 13+ years ago to model flu pandemics…
— neil_ferguson (@neil_ferguson) March 22, 2020
Are you modelling the total segregation of those >65 AND those with pre-existing conditions? This will eliminate 98 per cent of the maximum possible deaths.
Thereafter, does your model still require 100% lockdowns as India and most Western nations are imposing?
This is urgent.
— Sanjeev Sabhlok (@sabhlok) March 28, 2020