29th March 2020
Do you know of an expert mathematician who can volunteer to help?
Sharing this email I sent out to a moment ago one of the best mathematicians in the world, with copy to those who are well connected to both the UK and US administrations. If anyone of you know of expert mathematicians who can volunteer to form part of a modelling team, that would be appreciated. We want to give the world a chance to succeed.
Currently, we are seeing the worst possible option being adopted globally (with the exception of Taiwan, Malta and possibly Singapore and Hong Kong).
Write to me at sabhlok@gmail.com if you know anyone capable of drilling into the pandemic models.
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Dear Steve
This is an urgent request to seek the application of your immense mathematical prowess to pandemic models.
From what I have gathered (see https://www.sabhlokcity.
I also don’t think anyone in the pandemic modelling industry has the slightest clue about the costs and benefits of various options. They have therefore uniformly recommended the option that will decimate the entire world. ( https://twitter.com/sabhlok/
I have asked Neil Fergusen the following – but there’s no guarantee he’ll either see this or act on it: https://twitter.com/
I have written three articles on this issue already:
Age-based risk management of coronavirus – 6 March
Lockdowns won’t defeat the virus but will definitely destroy us all – 24 March
We must not flatten India order to flatten the curve – 26 March
We must not flatten India order to flatten the curve – 26 March
When thinking of those with the skillset to test these pandemic models I thought of you, given your superb work on the hockey stick. I, too, have the mathematical training (although slightly rusty now) to get my hands dirty, but have no time to spare at present. I’m not sure how you are placed with time, but if you could spare a few days for this, that would be immensely helpful.
In this regard I requested India’s senior-most bureaucrat (my “batchmate” from the Indian civil service) to get Indian modellers on the job, but he has not responded. I don’t think they have anyone sensible in India, else they’d not have imposed the total lockdown.
I’m also copying a few others in the hope that they may have some thoughts on how someone can assemble a strong mathematical team to look at whether these models can be relied upon.
Ideally, the Trump administration should get involved in this – given Trump is the only man who has expressed reservations about an endless lockdown.
Regards
Sanjeev
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“Simulating Covid-19 Scenarios”