31st March 2020
Data continues to confirm the differential age-based impacts of coronavirus COVID19
Some people have got swayed by recent reports that some younger people are also dying from the virus. Yes, some of them are (and more than the original China CDC study suggested). But they remain a small share of their age group. In this blog post (placeholder, to be updated) I’ll track my data sources for the age-based impacts of the virus.
A total of 72,314 patient records—44,672 (61.8%) confirmed cases, 16,186 (22.4%) suspected cases, 10,567 (14.6%) clinically diagnosed cases (Hubei Province only), and 889 asymptomatic cases (1.2%)—contributed data for the analysis.
16 March 2020 Neil Ferguson estimates Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand
His paper is available online but the server is bad and works only sporadically, so I’m just posting this from the paper:
27 March 2020 ICNARC (UK) study
First, the data reporting is poor, it combines all ages below 50. So we can’t distinguish what’s happening to different groups. What was the age of the 9 cases below 50 that died? But we note the following distribution of the UK population: