11th May 2019

The performance of climate models

To me climate science will start becoming a real science when its models start tracking reality. I’m creating this post in order to pin it to the top of my Truth about climate change FB page.

In fact, EVERYTHING boils down to this – that the climate models MUST accurately predict real temperatures in order for us to have any faith in their ability to predict the future. IF YOU CAN PROVE TO ME THAT THE POSTS BELOW ARE INCORRECT, I’LL ALLOCATE TIME TO STUDY YOUR VIEWS CAREFULLY.

Climate "believers" continue to argue the theory and models.
I believe all theory is junk unless proven true.
That, I thought, was the basic premise of science till these "scientists" came along.
— Sanjeev Sabhlok (@sabhlok) July 1, 2019

To be called a mature science, climate science must explain the past perfectly (at less than 1 per cent variation) and separate natural warming from any man-made causes by predicting the future perfectly (at maybe 5 per cent variation).
So far it has failed on both tests.
— Sanjeev Sabhlok (@sabhlok) July 2, 2019

With 100 climate models there is no way to falsify the theory.
Give us one model, one set of precise predictions. Today, no matter what happens, some prediction or model will always come true. Even if 99/100 fail.
Science is never done this way.
— Sanjeev Sabhlok (@sabhlok) July 2, 2019

Some relevant links:

Richard Treadgold’s post on Climate Conversation Group

Tim Ball’s article in Watts Up With That.

Experts admit global warming predictions wrong

Climate Models Don’t Work

IPCC climate models speeding out of control compared to real world

Checking In With the Popular Climate Models

Climate models – worse than we thought

90 climate model projectons versus reality

Peer reviewed papers:

1) Satellite Bulk Tropospheric Temperatures as a Metric for Climate Sensitivity – This study, published in the Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, shows real-world climate change over the past 38 years is 0.096 degrees Celsius, about half of what computer models predict.

2) climate models exaggerate the global warming from CO2 emissions by as much as 45%

OTHER VITAL INFO

Judith Curry’s presentation

‘I was tossed out of the tribe’: climate scientist Judith Curry interviewed

Do 97% of Climate Scientists Really Agree?

Comments on climate change from one of the greatest economists of all time, Vernon Smith

MY MAY 2018 YOUTUBE TALK

My TOI blog post on this topic.

OTHER USEFUL VIDEOS

Note how the quality and depth of knowledge of the non-fanatics (i.e. real scientists) is SO far ahead of the fraudulent Mann.