8th October 2017
I’m afraid North Korea has won the game of nuclear deterrence. It is time for detente to encourage it to become an open economy.
THE LOGIC OF NUCLEAR DETERRENCE IS IN FAVOUR OF THE ROCKET MAN. TRUMP NEEDS TO ACCEPT THE FACTS OF LIFE AND MOVE ON.
This is now about identifying the least harmful option.
Question 1: If USA does nothing, then what is the probability that NK will unilaterally use its nukes against other countries in the next 40 years?
Question 2: If NK uses its nukes, what is the estimated average loss of life in USA/South Korea/ Japan, etc.
The multiplication of these two numbers will give us the expected cost of doing nothing.
This cost then needs to be weighed against the definite loss of life if US nukes NK today.
Immediate nuking would be good if it can be proven that doing so would prevent a guaranteed and greater loss of life in the future (subject to appropriate discounting).
My guess is that NK will almost never use its nukes against other countries – since it knows that it will be immediately wiped out. If so, things should be allowed to drift as they are.
A long term nuclearised NK is therefore preferable to unilateral nuking of NK by USA.
It is time to accept NK as a nuclear power and invite the Rocket Man to USA to promote detente. Let USA influence NK into becoming an open economy.