4th September 2013
India is lurching into a grim future – with its current political leadership incapable of rescuing it
It has personally been a very sorry situation for me. After six months of working with Swami Ramdev and with hope that we will actually CHANGE India's future, I find there was no willingness to genuinely reform India's governance. Swami Ramdev might have compulsions about which I'm not aware. But he seems to have effectively set back India's future by not taking the actions he had committed to taking.
In the meanwhile, Swarna Bharat Party has been established (and is in the process of registration with the Election Commission) but currently there is simply no momentum, no funding, not many leaders. The resources needed for a major political effort need to come together if any genuine change is to be effected.
India is lurching badly into a grim future. Black clouds have entirely taken over the horizon. There is no silver lining. More than one year ago Chetan Bhagat had the foresight to write:
The government is behaving like a drunken husband who borrows to buy liquor.
In simple terms, imagine a middle-class man who earns Rs 10,000 per month. His house needs urgent repairs. He also has past debts to clear.
Thus, every month he has to pay Rs 3,000 as interest.
He lives well and spends Rs 12,000 as living costs. He spends Rs 2,000 on urgent repairs, but needs a lot more to fix the house.
Thus, his overall spend is Rs 17,000 compared to his income of Rs 10,000. To fill the gap, he borrows Rs 7,000 every month (thus increasing his total debt and the next month's interest).
He doesn't have the money to educate his kids or fix the house anytime soon.
…What would you call such a man? An economic powerhouse? …will you call him irresponsible, unaccountable and deluded?
Well, the above example is that of our government finances. …
What is the government doing? It is splurging money to please voters..
It isn't corruption technically, but it is ruining the nation's accounts. …
Sadly, few Indians care.
Many of us actually believe all this somehow doesn't affect our own lives.
Government finances are too complicated and distant to bother us.
And yet, we are entering the danger zone. Interest rates and borrowing costs have zoomed up.
Most private businesses today are unable to borrow below 15% per annum. They are not making big growth plans anymore. Inflation is well above 10%. The rupee has collapsed 20% in the last two years. …
What does all this mean? Our GDP growth has slowed down, from the 8% zone to the 5% zone. And that will have a dramatic effect on new jobs. …
In the next five years, we might witness a full-blown job crisis. That will mean tremendous pain for unemployed but talented people, and cause a lot of instability in the country.
Unemployment, after all, is the biggest cause of revolutions." [Source]
What Bhagat didn't mention but must now be taken into account is that robotics has now become such a big thing (from this year) that it is going to suck out jobs from India and put them back into the West (that too, very few) in the coming five years. There is a serious crisis brewing, and I'm not sure whether India has any leadership capability to avert it. Modi, to the best of my knowledge, is just not up to the task.
In the meanwhile, clouds over Modi's future as possible PM are getting darker as well. There is a huge risk now that his pet police officers (whom he had been forced to punish in order to protect his skin?) are now rebelling.
"As the government has miserably failed in protecting its encounter police" [What – does Vanzara expect any government to protect those who kill people in fake 'encounters'?
"he, in the hurry of marching towards Delhi, may kindly not forget to repay the debt which he owes to jailed police officers who endowed him with the halo of Brave Chief Minister among the galaxy of other Chief Ministers who do not bear the same adjective before their names." [This is serious stuff – indicates there was a deliberate effort – at least through words – to promote extra-judicial killings]
"this spineless government of Gujarat which is valiant only in words otherwise coward in deeds and impotent in actions" [Vanzara too deserves a speedy trial – that much I agree. If there are deliberate attempts to slow down the trial – then questions must be asked] [Source]
Modi's election as PM is looking increasingly difficult because if he was actually involved in wrong doing, then something might come along in the next few months to derail his campaign. BJP has no other leader of any standing across India.
On the policy front, BJP has nothing remarkable to offer. I haven't seen any policies from the BJP policy think tank yet, but I'm not sure we'll see policies which can fix India's humongous problems. The origin of BJP is in an socialist, inward looking approach. Not sure whether it can over come such a long history of socialism.
I would like to appeal to Indians who are capable of seeing the writing on the wall to immediately group together and join Swarna Bharat Party. This is a CLASSICAL LIBERAL platform which CAN not only save India from severe disaster but help make it succeed like no one else can.
I may have become less sceptical about Modi (at least since yesterday) but that is not the same as having confidence in him or in BJP. Policy wise and governance capability wise, BJP simply doesn't have the right credentials. And its link with VHP are simply too blatant.