Thoughts on economics and liberty

Data must always trump theory. CO2 induced panic is not justified by DATA.

I've written to John Quiggin about this article published yesterday. I do hope he reads it, and also Donna's book. I expect him (if he is interested in the truth) to change his mind pretty soon now.

There's nothing new (for me) in this new article published yesterday, but for the sake of the "blind believers" and CO2-panicked people who may be reading this blog, let me publish highlights. Trust your panic will now ease. Basically, DATA trumps THEORY. That's the first rule of science. And data are clear: There is NO proof of run-away global warming induced by CO2.

Climate change science is a load of hot air and warmists are wrong
August 2, 2012, David Evans

1) SUN The sceptic's main suspect is the sun. [Sanjeev: In my view, this is a very important variable, particularly after lagged effects are considered. See my blog posts here and here]

2) IPCC MODELS: If the CO2 theory of global warming is right, the climate models should predict the climate fairly well. If the CO2 theory is wrong, because there is another, larger driver of the temperature, then the climate models will perform indifferently.

According to the latest data from mankind's best and latest instruments, from impeccable sources, the climate models are doing poorly.

The first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report in 1990 predicted air temperatures would increase by 0.30 degrees per decade, and by 0.20 degrees to 0.50 degrees per decade at the outside. But according to NASA satellites that measure almost the entire planet constantly, the trend since then has been 0.17 degrees per decade at most. The climate scientists ignore these awkward results and instead only quote temperatures from land thermometers, half of which are at airports where they are artificially warmed by jet engines and hot tarmac, while most of the rest are in warming micro-climates such as near air conditioner outlets, at sewage plants or in car parks. Obviously the data from these corrupted thermometers should not be used.  [Sanjeev: btw, in my view Anthony Watts who first brought this to the world's notice, with THOUSANDS of photos, and has now provided detailed proof of the bias, should be given the Nobel Prize]

Ocean temperatures have only been measured properly since 2003 when the Argo program became operational. Some 3000 Argo buoys roam the oceans, measuring temperatures on each 10-day dive into the depths. Before Argo, we used sporadic sampling with buckets and diving darts along a few commercial shipping lanes. But these measurements have such massively high uncertainties as to be useless. Since Argo started, the ocean temperatures have been flat, no warming at all.

3) HOTSPOT: The assumed temperature amplification due to changes in humidity and clouds exhibits itself in all the models as prominent warming about 10 kilometres up over the tropics. We have been measuring the atmospheric warming pattern since the 1960s using weather balloons, released twice a day from 900 locations around the planet, many millions of them in total, and no such ''hot spot'' has been detected. This is direct observational proof that the amplification is missing.

4) OUTGOING RADIATION: The climate models predict that the outgoing radiation from the earth decreases in the weeks following a rise in the surface temperature, due to aggressive heat-trapping by extra humidity. But analysis of the outgoing radiation measured by NASA satellites for the last two decades shows the opposite occurs: the earth gives off more heat after the surface temperature rises. Again, this suggests that the amplification assumed in the models simply does not occur in reality.

5) GLOBAL PLATEAU IN TEMPERATURES (albeit at a high level):  CO2 level continues to rise but the temperature plateau of the last 12 years persists.
 

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Sanjeev Sabhlok

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