Sanjeev Sabhlok's blog

Thoughts on economics and liberty

Do you know of an expert mathematician who can volunteer to help?

Sharing this email I sent out to a moment ago one of the best mathematicians in the world, with copy to those who are well connected to both the UK and US administrations. If anyone of you know of expert mathematicians who can volunteer to form part of a modelling team, that would be appreciated. We want to give the world a chance to succeed.
Currently, we are seeing the worst possible option being adopted globally (with the exception of Taiwan, Malta and possibly Singapore and Hong Kong).
Write to me at if you know anyone capable of drilling into the pandemic models.

Dear Steve

This is an urgent request to seek the application of your immense mathematical prowess to pandemic models.
From what I have gathered (see these models do not distinguish between the individuals who are at the “receiving end” of a virus.

I also don’t think anyone in the pandemic modelling industry has the slightest clue about the costs and benefits of various options. They have therefore uniformly recommended the option that will decimate the entire world. ( )

I have asked Neil Fergusen the following – but there’s no guarantee he’ll either see this or act on it:
I have written three articles on this issue already:
When thinking of those with the skillset to test these pandemic models I thought of you, given your superb work on the hockey stick. I, too, have the mathematical training (although slightly rusty now) to get my hands dirty, but have no time to spare at present. I’m not sure how you are placed with time, but if you could spare a few days for this, that would be immensely helpful.
In this regard I requested India’s senior-most bureaucrat (my “batchmate” from the Indian civil service) to get Indian modellers on the job, but he has not responded. I don’t think they have anyone sensible in India, else they’d not have imposed the total lockdown.

I’m also copying a few others in the hope that they may have some thoughts on how someone can assemble a strong mathematical team to look at whether these models can be relied upon.

Ideally, the Trump administration should get involved in this – given Trump is the only man who has expressed reservations about an endless lockdown.

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What lies behind the pandemic models that are being used to inform policy?

I’m persuaded that the underlying modelling of pandemics is massively defective. A number of sensible options are not considered. I’ll comment more on that later. But for now, a few links to what these models actually do.

These are essentially S-I-R models, as explained below. This is a placeholder post.


COVID-19 dynamics with SIR model

Modeling Disease Spread and Control

The Scientist Whose Doomsday Pandemic Model Predicted Armageddon Just Walked Back The Apocalyptic Predictions

Prudent public health intervention strategies to control the coronavirus disease 2019 transmission in India: A mathematical model-based approach
COVID-19: Impact on health of people & wealth of nations


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Mass brutalities and torture by Modi through his completely unjustified total lockdown

This is a placeholder post. Will try to keep track of instances that come to my notice.


One ambulance driver from our place was driving from Mumbai to Shrigonda, carrying a patient and the driver’s father was travelling with him. Police accused the ambulance of carrying passengers in the ambulance and thrashed them with sticks. After travelling for few kms, the father started feeling uneasy. No hospital admitted him or treated him. The father died after some time. The news flashed in the local news papers today. [Source]

A Doctor Was Assaulted On Her Way To The Hospital. She’s Not The Only Medic Being Attacked.

Bengal man’s family says he died of police beating, police say he had heart ailment

Walking Home From Delhi For Over 200 km, Delivery Agent Dies On Highway




Indians are enjoying Modi's blessings. By voting this monster into power Indians have chosen this life of slavery to whimsical police.

Posted by Sanjeev Sabhlok on Friday, 27 March 2020

Posted by Sanjeev Sabhlok on Friday, 27 March 2020



“This BJP govt is more cruel than the British Raj”

‘What will we eat?’ labourers and people from unorganised sectors stare at uncertain future

India’s poorest ‘fear hunger may kill us before coronavirus’

People are leaving for home from cities. They have no money, no food. Transport has been stopped. They are walking…

Posted by Sanjeev Sabhlok on Thursday, 26 March 2020








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