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Category: Economics

One big thing that Trump needs to really get right: free trade – on this his current approach is wrong

Lest I sound like a full-out supporter of Trump, let me add that from what I’ve read and heard, he is wrong – badly wrong – on one big thing: trade.

In his view China has harmed the USA, and he has talked about restricting trade.

If he does that, it will seriously harm the USA.

The good thing is he wants to lower taxes to attract investment in the USA. Well, nothing is one-sided. Investment is two-sided. Trade is two-sided.

He must learn about the value of free trade.

USA WILL BENEFIT MOST FROM UNILATERAL FREE TRADE.

Stop all treaties, and JUST OPEN UP FOR BUSINESS. 100 per cent. No exceptions.

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Donald Trump is 100 per right on excessive regulation and excessive taxes choking America’s growth

US regulation is a joke – almost like that of Europe. The country of Jefferson has imprisoned itself in the most absurd red tape.

Anyway, Donald Trump has called a spade a spade in this matter. Extracts from his press conference [Source] – see also my other posts from that press conference here and here.

14:30 I think the federal government should get out of the way. The federal government is in the way. The federal government – the regulations that they have – they’ve put the coal miners out of business.

Because I think ultimately coal will be very inexpensive and it’s got to get — you got to get rid of some of the regulations. I spoke to some of the mine owners, and they were surrounded by some of their miners. And they were showing me some of the regulations where it is on a daily basis going in checking, checking, checking. And they have people that do nothing but deal with regulators and it is out of control. It’s gotten out of control.

PATERSON: And what would you do about those market forces?

TRUMP: Well, the market forces are going to be whatever they are. You know, all I can do is free up the coal which I’m going to totally do. Get the companies back to work, market forces, that’s something I don’t want to get involved in, that’s a beautiful — to me a market force is a beautiful force.

21:50 Well I tell you two of them that are very, very important are lower taxes. We are the highest taxed nation in the world by far. Lower taxes. And the other one is we’re over-regulated. And I will tell you. I made a speech last night in front of a group and I said. Regulation. And what surprised me, really surprised me, – I’ve seen it over you know, ever since I been doing this for like 10 months or so – and regulation is even more of a problem for people than the taxes. Which surprised me. But they’re both problems, so we’re going to lower under my plan we are lowering taxes vary substantially as you know – for businesses, for middle income, for everybody, so taxes are going way down. We’re going to allow trillions of dollars to pour into the country that are right now outside of this country; where people and companies want to bring it in they can. And we’re going to get rid of the tremendous numbers of rules and regulations probably 75% of which are absolutely terrible for our country.

Let me repeat: MARKET FORCE IS A BEAUTIFUL FORCE. That surely suggests that Trump understands something about the market (even though he seems to oppose free trade).

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Donald Trump is 100 per cent right on climate change and energy policy

I’ve not been listening Donald Trump’ speeches for two reasons: (1) until he became a serious candidate, it was pointless to do so; (2) I had very poor access to the internet for five months; got better just around three weeks ago.

Now that Trump is a serious contender, we need to understand what he stands for.

CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY

This is what he said: https://www.facebook.com/Channel4News/videos/vb.6622931938/10153776466491939/?type=2&theater

I give him a big tick on climate change. That he will pull out of the useless groupthink based climate accords. [SourceTrump to undo climate agenda, push coal]

See also: Trump: Cancel Paris, Cut Funds for UN Climate, Save the coal industry

ENERGY POLICY

And I give him a VERY BIG TICK on his understanding of energy. I’m extracting, below from his press conference yesterday (25 or 26 May 2016 – US time) [I’ve used Youtube transcription plus spent around an hour to transcribe more accurately a few things: Word version here]

14:30 I think the federal government should get out of the way. The federal government is in the way. We have so much potential energy that people wouldn’t even believe it. In fact, my speech today is on energy. Exactly what it was and is. The federal government – the regulations that they have – they’ve put the coal miners out of business. The coal mines are shut. What they’ve done to the coal. What Hillary Clinton she’s worse than Obama. She wants to. I mean she’s openly said – I want to put the coal miners out of business. I want to put the coal mines out of business. Essentially she saying I want to put the steel mills out of business. We’re not going to have any businesses left.

30:20 Well, Bernie is going to ban fracking, Hillary is going to ban fracking, Hillary is going to abolish the Second Amendment, OK, just in case you have any questions. She’s going to abolish the right to own guns. She’s going to abolish the Second Amendment. And I’m exactly the opposite. And I got the endorsement the other day from the NRA which was a great endorsement and a great honor for me. Because they are great amazing people. I’m a member of the NRA. My sons are members of the NRA. But they want to absolutely knock out fracking.

And you do that, you going to be back into the Middle East and we’re going to be begging for oil again. Its not going to happen now with me. We’re going to open it up. We’re going to be energy independent. We are going to have all sorts of energy. We will have everything you can think of, including solar.

And I know a lot about solar. The problem is solar is very expensive. It doesn’t really … you know, when you have a thirty year payback,that’s not exactly the greatest thing in the world. But I know a lot about solar and I’ve gone solar on occasion, but it’s a very, very expensive thing. Wind is very expensive. I mean wind is … without subsidy wind doesn’t work. You need massive subsidies for wind and there are places may be for wind, but if you go to various places in California, wind is killing all of the eagles. You know if you shoot an eagle or you kill an eagle, they’ll want to put you in jail for five years, and yet the windmills are killing hundreds and hundreds of eagles. One of the most beautiful, one of the most treasured birds. And they are killing by the hundreds but nothing happens. So wind is, you know, it’s a problem plus it’s very, very expensive and it doesn’t work without subsidy. So … but despite that I am into all types of energy.

You know Hillary Clinton wants to put the coal miners out of business. She wants to put the steel mills out of business.

 

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“Anything which is protected gets stifled” – Sharad Joshi’s interview in Economic Times, in 2000

Found this in my records. I’ve scanned it both as PDF and JPG. ORC’d text below. What a fantastic thinker!

====INTERVIEW===

Interview with Sharad Joshi, Economic Times 11 July 2000

He is the farmer leader that broke the mould of previous Indian farmer leaders. He dissociates himself firmly from the common or garden-variety NGO worker (“they all wanted to become either IAS officers or politicians but lacked the ability to be either”). Today, Shetkari Sangathana supremo Sharad Joshi is perhaps India’s best bet to draft a strategy for the next WTO Agriculture Round. Talking to Nidhi Nath Srinivas, Joshi who is now the chairman of the task-force for WTO and agriculture with Cabinet rank, reveals why he favours letting market forces rule, why foreign direct investment should be welcomed and why all restrictions on the movement of agricultural produce within the country must go.

When is your committee due to submit its suggestions for the new Agriculture Round next year?

We are preparing specific proposals which will be ready by February. We have already taken the views of state governments, NGOs and farmer organisations. What is the line they want India to take?

They believe that before we globalise, we should first create one free, integrated domestic market for goods and services. At present, India is more like several different countries and the tax structures are ridiculous. Multilaterally, they would like the creation of a new ‘box’ for food security to be used by developing nations, which would be excluded while calculating the Aggregate Measure of Support (AMS) to producers. There is a trend towards doing away with all those exceptions allowed through ‘blue’ and ‘green’ boxes under WTO and fixing new limits for AMS. We would also like to negotiate lower bound tariff rates in other countries.

What’s the AMS given to Indian farmers?

Overall, our farmers have a negative subsidy. The differences in the situation of farmers with negative subsidy, such as India, and positive subsidy, such as in EU, is so stark that it cannot but indicate · the non-unity of interests between India’s government and farmers. It also means industry and commerce are getting an unfair advantage. This puts negative subsidies at par with using child labour by manufacturing units.

Isn’t this rather a drastic view to take? India is actually quite proud of its negative subsidy and never fails to mention it.

Negative subsidy is a deliberate, vicious denial to farmers, which means they are losing out on the right prices for their produce. But the solution is not higher Minimum Support Prices (MSPs), as the socialists around us would like to believe.

Actually, if the government simply doesn’t intervene, doesn’t hamper exports or charge a levy from millers, farmers will automatically start getting the right price for their produce. Markets always end up giving the just price for a commodity, provided they are not tampered with.

Is your committee going to address itself to only the WTO agenda or to larger agricultural issues?

Indian agriculture is at a special juncture today. Our continuous anti-farmer policies, coupled with globalisation and genetic technology, means they are worse off now than ever before. So our terms of reference, in accordance with the prime minister’s wishes, reflect these concerns.

But instead of coming out with a voluminous report which would gather dust in the archives, we are trying to create a noticeable change in the agricultural environment through specific projects. In fact, our first interim report would be out by November-end.

What would these projects focus on?

To begin with, we are working on a plan for improving the rural marketing system. The mandi boards or APMCs are today completely politicised, expensive, offer no services, and only create a chasm between producers and Consumers. In my view, state governments should allow any group of seven to 10 persons to form an association offering mandi services.

Once there is free competition between mandis in a district, farmers will get better deals. We are trying this now in Maharashtra. In developed nations, there are parallel networks of large retail supermarkets such as Marks & Spencer’s or Sainsbury’s in Britain for example, which not only procure directly from producers, but also supervise grading standards, pesticide usage and so on. There have been instances where they have made suppliers change product designs and specifications in accordance with consumer demand.

In India, we are asking farmers to compete globally with large multinationals when they are constrained by the warped mandi system. This is unfair to them and we can’t compete without first creating an intermediate stage where quality-conscious supermarkets buy directly from them.

So you would like such giant supermarket networks to come up in India? There are none at present to compare with the international retail players.

Certainly. We need such a network of supermarkets and it would be a major revolutionary move. In my view, we should welcome FDI in both grain handling and supermarkets. Consumers too, will gain tremendously because without middlemen, the final costs would far lower.

The latest buzz in agricultural policy circles of developed nations is multifunctionality, a belief that agriculture needs to be protected because it is not just about producing food but cultures, environment and life-styles as well. Most Third World countries have been saying this for years, though perhaps not so coherently and no one paid the slightest attention to them. Now EU and Japan are using it to defend their subsidies. What will be India’s view on the issue?

All nations are free to have their own beliefs about the role of agriculture in their culture. We believe the cow is sacred and have the right to believe what we want For EU, agriculture needs protection to ensure that it remains a desirable lifestyle. As an EU official once told me, “City girls don’t date farmers’ sons.” So there is a social inequality between city and rural people they genuinely want to address.

But that doesn’t mean limitless subsidies to growers. So we’d like to ask them to add up the costs of ensuring multifunctionality and tell us how it translates in terms of subsidy and what plans they have to scale it down annually. As different nations, we have the freedom of attitudes. What we need to examine is not the intention but the effect of their policies on world trade.

Shouldn’t India also seek protection for handicrafts and SSI to ensure their multifunctionality?

What is stopping India from protecting these sectors except a lack of appropriate policy? We expect handloom, for instance, to compete with mills, which is impossible. But if planned properly, they can capture niche markets where mass production can never work. In fact, our industry and agriculture needs anything but protection, because anything which is protected gets stifled.

The Cairns Group has been vehemently opposing EU’s Common Agricultural Policy and export subsidies. Shouldn’t India align itself formally with it?

We certainly have a community of interests with the Cairns Group. But we don’t agree with their views on how to treat negative subsidies. So it can’t be a wholesale alignment, only an issue-based handshake. We are good at that!

What is the biggest barrier for Indian agricultural produce abroad -high tariffs, prices or quality?

The biggest and completely unnoticed, problem for us is that the produce of most developing nations is not acceptable in world trade. We need to admit honestly that we are deficient there rather than blame the world for not buying our goods. Some self-criticism is needed here. We can prepare to join the market as it is, rather than expect markets to change for us. The world does not owe us a living.

What about our domestic prices?

These are certainly a problem. Earlier we were competitive at the farm gate but lost the edge on the way to port. Now, our prices are also higher because gene technology in cotton and soyabean, for example, have given an edge to foreign farmers. For the first time, Indian cotton is ruling higher than world prices.

So, we have difficulty defending our domestic markets from cheap imports. The solution is nothing short of pulling ourselves up by the bootstraps and altering our very style of agriculture.

But this is becoming a highly painful process for our growers and producers alike. The demands for protection through duties are deafening. The edible oils industry is a case in fact.

You can’t learn swimming without being pushed into the pool. It is a part of the whole learning process. So their suffering is almost like drug addicts getting treatment -painful but necessary. The edible oils industry can be protected but only for some time. If it is protected for ever, that would be unfair to consumers. It would also invite retaliatory action from other producing nations.

What role are NGOs playing in this process of re-inventing Indian agriculture?

Nothing. Our NGOs have the old socialist mindset of paternalistic government Most are completely misinformed and their only expertise is the uncanny ability to generate funds. Typically, if farmers export mangoes for better returns, they protest and say what will local consumers eat? If we import fruit for consumers to get better quality at cheaper prices, they say farmers are losing out They simply don’t understand how markets work and where farmer interests lie.

Why can’t India develop trained negotiators for agriculture like the formidable US Department of Agriculture?

The USDA officials have been working there for decades and understand agriculture and its ramifications as no one here can. In India, we are simply not business minded enough. So we are never able to either defend or promote our interests. Even our WTO negotiating team is being thrown up like the Olympic team. It’s seen as a junket for bureaucrats and ministers.

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Too many people think that water must be free or subsidised. But water is not free, like air is free. So it can’t be made free.

At one time, not too long ago, most people assumed that the government has a role in supplying telephones and electricity. This myth has been largely defeated.

It now appears that water is causing similar confusion. People seem to think that water is something that a government must provide, and that it must be subsidised.

I had noted this earlier in relation to water:

  1. The case for water privatisation
  2. For the record, the sad case of one Mr ABC (name withheld)

My recent comments on FB.

I’d strongly urge people to read this: Water Is Not a Public Good

The main point to note is that unlike air, which is found everywhere, water requires HUMAN EFFORT AND INGENUITY to clean it, collect it, transport it, and use it.

Water is NOT costless.

Anything that has a cost for its extraction, purification and transport must necessarily be privatised, to ensure an efficient allocation.

Yes, ground water is common property, but any water that falls on one’s own land/property is private property. And any water that is extracted from lakes and rivers can readily be privatised and its use be made more efficient and sustainable.

Water markets and market-based water pricing are the way to go.

 

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